If consumers don’t reduce their use, analysts predict that the region will run out of gas by March.
According to analysts cited by Reuters on Wednesday, fully filled gas storage tanks could not be adequate to support European nations over the approaching heating season.
The bloc’s storages, according to assessments by Aurora Energy Research, can only supply enough gas for up to 90 days of typical consumption. ICIS’s modelling indicates that the region’s supplies might be depleted by March. Analysts concur that reducing gas consumption is necessary to prevent shortages.
According to Simone Tagliapietra, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank, “demand reduction will be much more crucial than storage to cope with this crisis situation.”
According to ICIS statistics, if monthly consumption is lowered by 15% below the five-year average, the EU may still have 45% of its gas reserves available in the spring if Russia keeps providing the region with gas at its present levels and 26% if Russia ceases doing so in October.
Furthermore, the EU’s inability to save gas this winter might influence the storage levels for the next year. The Oxford Institute of Energy Studies predicts that if Russia reduces gas exports and the EU exhausts its storage capacity during the forthcoming heating season, the storage capacity for the following year would be depleted as early as November, before the heating season is even well underway.
According to Matthias Buck, Europe director for Agora Energiewende, “the storage provides the safety net, but a very big demand decrease is what we need as a priority in this situation.”
